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the blog

Wednesday Aug 23, 2006

Attack Iran Project Still On Track

In June, when the Bushies supported a diplomatic overture to Iran, the plugged-in conservative pundits at Fox let us know that the White House Iran strategy hadn't really changed.

As noted here, Brit Hume said:

[This is] not a particularly big deal. Not really a major policy shift. This is an adjustment in tactics, is really what it was.

And there's no real hope in the administration that the Iranians will take this offer and agree to verified suspension of their uranium enrichment.

The whole purpose of this exercise was to force the pace of diplomatic events.

There's a belief in the administration that a moment of truth is coming with Iran when it finally does face the prospect of some U.N.-applied sanctions, and that's when we'll find out whether it's possible short of military action to end their military program.

Since then, the Bushies were able to pass a UN Security Council resolution telling Iran to stop enriching uranium, albeit only after Russia and China forced them to drop a clause that would have imposed immediate economic sanctions if Iran didn't comply.

(The Council would have to pass another resolution if sanctions are to happen.)

Now that Iran has not agreed to suspend enrichment, but instead has proposed restarting negotiations, the fine folks at Fox are reminding us that this was the hoped for outcome all along.

Here's Charles Krauthammer, from yesterday's "Special Report with Brit Hume":

All of this process is a dance. It was never a real offer to Iran. There's nobody in the Administration who expected Iran would say yes.

It was all about carrots for the allies. The allies wanted to go an extra mile. So we said OK, we'll give you an extra three months...

...if the end comes where we have to actually use force ... this process is a way to at least ensure that our closest allies will not oppose us and denounce us. They will perhaps take a position of neutrality after we have shown them that we would look for every other avenue.

The next step now is a sanctions resolution.

And it's an open question whether or not one can pass, and if it can pass, how extensive will the sanctions be.

Today's NY Times' reports that to keep Russia and China on board, any sanctions package would have to be very limited in scope.

So chances are, Iran will keep enriching whether sanctions pass or not.

If they pass, the Bushies can say they tried 'em and they didn't work before attacking.

If they don't pass, the Bushies can say the UN failed to enforce their own resolution before attacking.

That doesn't mean an attack is imminent, just that the Bushies are steadily progressing in establishing their pretext for an attack.

Dems can't control what the Bushies do. But they can stand up to the Bushies, reshape the discourse, and rally public opinion for real negotiations and a real solution for Middle East security and stability.

Back in June, Sen. Joe Biden showed an inclination to do just that, saying about Iran, "I think we've kind of seen this movie before in Korea," where Bush agreed to talks but not to making any serious proposals.

But there hasn't been any sort of sustained effort by Dems to challenge Bush's sincerity about a negotiated solution.

If Biden follows through on his earlier comments and steps up his criticism of the whole process, that would be helpful. Something to watch for.

Posted by Bill Scher on Aug 23, 2006 email post email Spotlight / / You are in Iran
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