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the blog

Wednesday Aug 9, 2006

Man Without A Party, A Winning Issue, A Majority...

Lieberman sought to blunt Ned Lamont's victory momentum by announcing his "Connecticut For Lieberman" party run in his concession speech.

Will it work?

That's for Connecticut voters to decide, not pundits or bloggers. But LiberalOasis presumes not.

It is far from a given that Lieberman would hold on to his 48% of the primary vote, which he would need to survive a three-way race.

Many of the voters likely went for Lieberman yesterday -- not because they want a guy who votes with Republicans on key issues -- but because they weren't yet convinced that it was worth the perceived risk of a safe Democratic seat to push him aside for a largely unknown Ned Lamont.

But now, Lamont is going to get a whole lot more known.

As the winner, Lamont will be showered with media profiles, giving hesitant Dem voters -- as well as indy and moderate GOP voters that Lamont wasn't yet talking to -- a better understanding of his biography and platform.

As the loser, Lieberman's stock will drop. And without a party, Lieberman will have to scratch and claw for surrogates to help him campaign.

So junk last month's polls showing Lieberman winning a three-way race in a walk.

That's when Lieberman was a winner and Lamont was an unknown. The dynamic will now shift.

How can Lieberman reverse dynamic?

He claims to want a campaign about issues.

But what issue is going to turn the race around for him?

On what issue do they differ where Lieberman's stance is the majority view in CT?

Iraq? Terri Schiavo? Civil liberities? Filibustering right-wing judges? Special interest energy and bankruptcy bills? Emergency contraception?

And if Lieberman tries to go negative, and distract from issues (as he tried and failed to do in the primary) he will further undermine his attempt to be above, in his own words of last night, the "old politics of polarization."

The one hope for Lieberman is that Lamont is a rookie.

Rookies can make mistakes, and enterprising reporters and opponents can potentially dig up fresh dirt.

But Lamont proved himself a very disciplined campaigner in crunch time this month.

And presumably, Lieberman threw all that he had against Lamont, and there wasn't much dirt to be found.

Posted by Bill Scher on Aug 9, 2006 email post email Spotlight / / You are in Democratic Party
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