At the end of the summer's Israel-Lebanon war, LiberalOasis concluded:

...this does appear to be a poorly constructed cease-fire resolution.

Why? None of the actual root causes of violence are addressed. Neither Israel nor Lebanon get anything.

The resolution punts on the occupation of Shebaa Farms and on the prisoners from both sides.

While the resolution calls for the Lebanese army to replace Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, without any political gains for the Lebanese people, the Lebanese government has less political capital with which to pressure Hezbollah to disarm.

And without disarmament, and without the return of the abducted Israeli soldiers, the Israeli people get nothing from the resolution as well.

Meaning both the Israeli and Lebanese governments may well be weakened, perhaps fatally, by this resolution.

Which could strengthen both Likud and Hezbollah, a recipe for more conflict and instability.

This analysis sadly appears to be pretty accurate, particularly in regards to Lebanon.

Hezbollah is widely perceived in Lebanon as politically strengthened since the war.

Emboldened, Hezbollah has demanded greater power within the Lebanese government, while pushing the government to the brink of collapse by having its affiliated cabinet ministers resign.

Yesterday's assassination of an anti-Syrian cabinet member may be the next stage of that effort. As the Christian Science Monitor explains:

Under the Lebanese constitution, a government cannot function if one-third of the cabinet resigns or is incapacitated. The resignations of the six ministers last week and Gemayel's murder means that if another minister is removed, the government will fall.

Now, LiberalOasis can't say with certainity that Hezbollah and/or their supporters in Syria are behind the assassination (the Syrians are contending that the killing is not in their interest, as every prior killing has politically weakened them).

But it is a certainty that the killers, whoever they support, are looking to take advantage of a grievously unstable political situation in Lebanon.

A situation that could have been stabilized if the Bush Administration, the Israeli government and the United Nations heeded Lebanon Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's repeated calls to resolve the Sheeba Farms dispute.

As LiberalOasis noted throughout the war, the Israeli occupation of Shebaa Farms has been used by Hezbollah as a pretext for continued "resistance."

If Siniora could resolve the dispute, and deliver a tangible success for his country, his coalition government would be strengthened and Hezbollah would lose justification for remaining armed.

Instead, after the war, Hezbollah is the only entity that is perceived as doing something for Lebanon.

In fact, immediately before the assassination, Siniora was pleading once again for the Shebaa Farms dispute to be resolved, as well as for Western and Arab donor nations to come through so the country can rebuild after the war.

If the Bush Administration was sincere about promoting democracy, it would do everything possible for democratic Middle Eastern governments to survive and thrive.

That means helping them deliver for their people, not leaving them to twist in the wind.

The Bushies did nothing for the Siniora government they supposedly back. Now it hangs by a thread.

And once again, extremists are strengthened and moderates are marginalized.