Back in June, LiberalOasis noted how Dubya's foreign policy in Somalia had backfired:

They could have chosen to shore up the relatively new transititional government, fostered economic development, engaged in diplomacy to solve regional differences -- all with an eye towards acheiving a stable, representative democracy.

Instead, they passed on the democracy, and secretly funded and armed Somali warlords -- possibly some of the same warlords who killed US soldiers in the Black Hawk Down episode -- in their battles with Islamist militia.

...

Fueling a civil war completely backfired, as the popularity of the Islamists increased over the last few months.

And now we risk, as Douglas Farah wrote, having this be "the beginning of another serious Islamist threat to a much broader world."

Now the civil war is expanding into a regional war with Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Today, that might not seem so bad, with Ethiopia winning a military battle with Somali Islamist forces.

But yesterday's W. Post story should make clear that short-term military victories do not equal long-term democracy and stability:

"The feelings are very bad, very confusing -- everywhere, it's confusing," said a businessman in Mogadishu who did not want to be identified. "I didn't expect this scale of war, but most Somalis, even if they were fighting each other before on a clan basis, they are united now against Ethiopia. And there's a feeling that the international community is not helping."

...

Analysts believe that Ethiopia's offensive is intended to force the movement back into negotiations by changing the situation on the ground.

But some analysts have expressed fear that ... even if its superior military initially routs the Islamic movement, the ideologically driven militias will become only more motivated to pursue a guerrilla-style war or terrorist attacks across the region.

...

"Hasn't anyone heard of Iraq?" said John Prendergast, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group in Washington. "A military strategy of 'countering terrorism' never works and will likely blow up in their faces."

While we certainly do not want Somalia to become a dictatorship and terrorist haven, Ethiopia -- whose military is backed by ours -- is ruled by an "increasingly authoritarian leader" who has tried to crush political opposition.

It is the propping up of such "friendly" leaders that breeds resentent, radicalizes populations and helps spread the jihadist movement.

This particular Somali movement, the Islamic Courts, is not simply a terrorist outfit. As the W. Post reports:

Opposition groups inside Ethiopia say that Meles, an increasingly authoritarian leader, has shrewdly played up the terrorism charges to win U.S. support.

Based in part on intelligence out of Ethiopia, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Jendayi E. Frazer has asserted that the Islamic movement is now under the control of an al-Qaeda cell, a claim that regional analysts believe is exaggerated.

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The Islamic Courts, initially a grouping of local clerics [established] order based on Islamic law village by village, and winning the support of businessmen and others who found the transitional government ineffective and the warlords unacceptable.

Analysts say it is a measure of beleaguered Somalis' desire for order, rather than a tendency toward religious extremism, that they embraced the movement.

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Though the movement includes moderate leaders, it is backed by a militant core of young fighters called shebab, who have been indoctrinated with the ideology of holy war and whose leaders, analysts say, seem to have become more influential in recent months.

The current US-Ethiopia policy, disrespecting democracy and diplomacy, is strengthening militants and marginalizing moderates.

Whereas a change in policy, seeking credible democracy by diplomatically engaging parties that represent all peoples, would accomplish the opposite.

The violence on the Horn of Africa is just another example of how conservative foreign policy is failing us: destabilizing the globe, helping terrorist movements and weakening our security.