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the blog

Wednesday Jan 9, 2008

Clinton and McCain take NH

There are 2 jobs that I'm thinking about looking into - weatherman and the other is pollster. The weatherman is the only job that I know of that you can be wrong over 50% of the time and still get paid. The other is pollster. None of the polls were right. Not one. Why? Who were they polling? Cats and dogs? As I mentioned yesterday, the last 2 polls that I saw had Obama with at least a 10 point lead. (Both CNN and Gallup should be beaten then shot then beaten again.) It is okay to be wrong. You know off by a few percentage points. This was a catastrophic failure. Over the coming days, the smart people will try to figure out what happened. I suspect it was an overwhelming number of independents that showed up. These independents probably were not taken into account in the original polling but I don't really know.

Anyway, Hillary Clinton was all smiles as she thanked the New Hampshire voters. Comeback kid was chanted at Clinton headquarters. Comeback? She lost one caucus? Whatever! I'm not buying the fact that women suddenly woke up Tuesday morning and were just down with Hillary. Why didn't that show in the polls? All of the polls appeared to poll women, didn't they? I'm also not buying that the debates changed anybody's mind. The debates were the same old thing. Nothing new from any of the candidates. Finally, I'm not jumping on the tears wagon. I don't think that a significant number of people would vote for Hillary Clinton because she started crying on Monday.

John McCain is playing the same theme as he won the Republican primary. He is having flashbacks of 2000. He should have known that History never repeats itself. Therefore, who knows what's ahead. The Republican field remains as confused as ever. Maybe Newt should run after all. :-)

The real loser has to be Mitt Romney. He has poured money into New Hampshire as well as Iowa. He lost both states. Neither of his losses were close. He has spent tens of millions of dollars and has almost nothing to show for it. It seems to me that his greatest appeal should have been in New Hampshire a state that was just next door to Massachusetts where he was governor. Several of the local editorials ripped Romney for completely changing his positions. The Michigan primary is on January 15. Michigan is the state where his father was governor in the early 60s. It should be a homecoming for him. If he loses in Michigan he should quit spending his money and pack it in (of course, if he just wants to give away his money he could give it to me. :-) )

John Edwards received a disappointing 17% of the Democratic vote. On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee received almost no momentum from his Iowa victory. He received only 11% of the vote. Rudy Giuliani, with New Hampshire being only a stone's throw from New York, can only muster a fourth-place finish with 9% of the Republican vote. Although it's not gentlemanly to kick a man when he's down, Fred Thompson, the savior of the Republican Party, received 1% of the vote. Ron Paul received eight times more votes than Fred Thompson did.

Hillary Clinton's victory speech - here. Barack Obama's I'm still fired up speech - here. And John Edward's 2 down but 48 states to go speech - here.

Posted by Errington Thompson on Jan 9, 2008 email post email Spotlight / / You are in Elections
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