Sen. John McCain is not yet the nominee, but obviously looks more plausible then when I wrote "Last Gasp of McCain?" two weeks ago (damn this topsy-turvey election season!).

And at this moment, McCain certainly polls the best against Clinton and Obama than any other Republican.

But I do not fear McCain in November. I'll republish the beginning of that earlier post:

Two years ago I wrote that Sen. John McCain is the "Most Dangerous Man in America," because of "[h]is potential to lure Dems and independents into unwittingly voting for a continuation of our disastrous foreign policy course...."

I don't feel that way anymore.

When McCain hugged the surge last year, he lost his "Straight Talk" sheen. He lost approval from independents, damaging his electability argument, and almost sinking his entire candidacy before the first vote was cast.

He regained some of it recently, because he's been able to milk the perception in some quarters that he's been proven right on the surge -- the brave Straight Talker who defied the naysayers. But this is likely a fleeting moment.

Theoretically, if McCain was the nominee, and if Iraq did to appear to be in good shape by election day, McCain would be formidable, and independents may well unwittingly vote for a permanent occupation (which would lead to long-term disaster regardless of the current state of Iraq -- see "Lebanon, Syrian Occupation of").

But since I highly doubt support of the Iraq war will be seen as a positive in November, John "100 Years In Iraq" McCain does not scare me politically.

McCain's appeal to independents rises and falls with Iraq. When McCain is clearly spinning in the face of failure in Iraq, independents see through him.