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the blog

Wednesday Apr 16, 2008

Republicans Find Straw, And Grasp

Four months ago, I observed that Republicans hadn't figured out how to run against Sen. Barack Obama, and when asked, they flailed and floundered.

Now, they think they have their script: the elitist snob, complete with logo.

Can't blame them for trying. Turning presidential campaigns away from discussions of issues and towards gleeful childish insults is their specialty.

And with 81% of country saying we're on the wrong track after seven years of conservatism, Republicans need to avoid discussion of issues more than ever.

But the frenzied rush of Republicans to embrace this manufactured narrative provokes nothing but amusement -- showing their lack of anything substantive to say, and their inability to recognize the nation's changing politics.

Simply put: flogging a couple of a stray comments is not enough to get a smear to stick.

Obama's life story and his demeanor on the campaign trail do not remotely evoke snobbery. If what people see doesn't match the insult, it's the attackers who end up looking silly.

(Obama has defended himself well enough, so I see no need to make a point-by-point defense here. But I would note that no elitism was actually conveyed -- the full context of the remarks show nothing but respect and understanding of the plight of working-class Americans in industrial areas. They were just said in an inartful way that left them open to willful misinterpretation. And on the whole, speaking inartfully is not exactly a big problem for Obama.)

Republicans are already duly warned. Early polling after the media hyperventilation -- featuring wealthy pundits pretending they know what working-class Pennsylvanians think -- doesn't show Obama taking a significant hit.

For example, in the Gallup tracking poll, Obama has slightly widened his lead over Sen. Clinton among Democrats, and his 2-point lead over Sen. McCain has held steady.

And in the latest ABC/W. Post poll, Obama has the highest favorable rating (56%) of any of the three presidential candidates. And he beats McCain by 5, while Clinton loses by 3.

But making this sort of elitist charge is what Republicans are comfortable doing -- little different from how they ran against Kerry, Gore and Dukakis.

The main differences are 1) Obama's campaign style is nothing like his Democratic predecessors, and 2) Republicans have to run on their record of complete conservative failure in all areas domestic and foreign.

Voters want fundamental change, and conservatives plan to re-run their old attack script. Good luck with that.

UPDATE: A little more perspective on the history of Democratic "elitism" alienating working-class voters, from the 2004 exit poll:

VOTE BY INCOME

Less Than $50,000
Kerry: 55%
Bush: 44%

More Than $50,000
Bush: 56%
Kerry: 43%

And there were similar numbers in 2000.

Posted by Bill Scher on Apr 16, 2008 email post email Spotlight / / You are in Elections
Posts Near Apr 16, 2008
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