...which will be meaningless unless you GET OUT THE VOTE.

Popular vote: Obama 53%, McCain 46%, other 1%

Obama is in the low 50s in nearly every national poll, while McCain's number fluctuates more between high 30s and mid-40s. Obama has picked up a lot of swing voters already. The undecided ones remaining appear to be more right-leaning, off/on McCain voters.

I'm presuming Obama doesn't get too much more from the remaining undecided pool. If his win is even bigger than my prediction, probably credit a combination of truly superior ground game, unenthusiastic Republican-leaning voters staying home and a "right-side-of-history" bandwagon effect.

Electoral College: Obama 353, McCain 185

This presumes Obama holds all 2004 blue states (including PA and NH, the last ones McCain is seriously contesting); fails to pick up IN, MO, MT, ND, GA, AZ and Nebraska's 2nd congressional district; and takes IA, NM, CO, VA, NC, FL, NV and OH.

I am least confident about NC and FL, but even without those Obama would win.

I'm not terribly confident about putting MO and IN in McCain's column, but those seem to be states where Obama losing the undecideds would be the difference. (You could say the same about NC and FL, but those are states where I'm putting faith in Obama's ground game based on nothing but anecdotes.)

UPDATE: After seeing OH polls this morning with Obama at 50% or above and with decent leads, I gave in to optimism and put OH in Obama's column. It also fits in with my prior assessment, partly based on McCain's early surrender in Michigan, that older voters with racial biases are confronting them and voting for Obama out of concern for the economy.

Senate: +8 pickup for Dems, for 59 seats total (inc. Sanders and Lieberman)

Not a daring prediction. Most assume Dems will pick up AK, NM, CO, NC, NH, VA and OR. MN is the closest Senate race out there, but I have to assume Al Franken can win a 3-way race with at least 45% in a state that Obama is going to win in a blowout.

GA, KY and MS seem a bridge too far to me. But as anyone will tell you, if Dems pick up any of these, you know the wave of change is big. (KY and GA polls close on the early side, but GA's race is likely to go a Dec. runoff with no one getting 50%.)

Now go prove me wrong, get out the vote and make this an even bigger landslide and bigger mandate for change.

Corrected to include the egregious omissions of Alaska and Virginia.