Posted in: Elections
Wednesday Sep 23, 2009
Tort Reform, Misdirection, and The Lesser of Two Evils
Before their 2008 meltdown, the hit on the Republican Party was simple: great at campaigning, bad at governing. Republicans were able to whip up populist fervor in ways that Democrats hadn’t in a generation, and had so successfully honed their...
permalink
emailTuesday Jun 30, 2009
Taking a moment out of the congressional mishmash of healthcare, climate bills and political sexual intrigue, let us take a look at Albania. The G99 party is modeling Obama pioneered grass roots organizing with American consultants and volunteers, recently...
Friday Jan 9, 2009
Sarah Palin's poor self assessment skills
In academic surgery, we have these venues called mortality and morbidity conferences. In theory, these are supposed to be open and honest forum where you truly review and investigate all complications. I believe Governor Sarah Palin should attend one of...
Wednesday Nov 19, 2008
Congratulations Senator Begich
In celebration of Mark Begich's victory over Sen. Ted Stevens, here's a replay of the interview I did with him at Netroots Nation earlier this year. Part 1 Part 2...
Monday Nov 10, 2008
The importance of today's meeting between Barack Obama and George W. Bush cannot be understated. Let's think back eight years to the White House meeting between President Bill Clinton and President-elect George W. Bush. According to James Moore's book, Bush's...
Friday Nov 7, 2008
...my election predictions were pretty good....
Wednesday Nov 5, 2008
It's not the style. It's the substance that dictated the outcome of the election, which gave Sen. Barack Obama a larger share of the popular vote than either George W. Bush or Bill Clinton ever received. The backdrop of this...
Wednesday Nov 5, 2008
I was just thinking - It was an amazing night. The fears of 2000/2004 returned. How were states really going to go? Was Georgia really in play? Where's Florida? Were those machines fixed? It has been hours and Virginia...
Tuesday Nov 4, 2008
Get Out The Vote, Run Up The Score, Build The Mandate, Get Back To Work
Today is not just about Obama, or McCain or Bush. Because this race has not been about a cult of personality (no matter how much the McCain campaign tried to make it one, and accuse the Obama campaign of trying...
Sunday Nov 2, 2008
...which will be meaningless unless you GET OUT THE VOTE. Popular vote: Obama 53%, McCain 46%, other 1% Obama is in the low 50s in nearly every national poll, while McCain's number fluctuates more between high 30s and mid-40s. Obama...
Friday Oct 31, 2008
What are you going to do between now and Election Day?...
Friday Oct 24, 2008
The McCain campaign tells the New York Times today how it sees a path to 270 electoral college votes. After talking about holding on the bulk of Bush '04 states that equal 260 votes: Mr. McCain’s advisers said they would...
Wednesday Oct 22, 2008
Obama to take time away from campaign to visit ailing Grandmother
It has been reported that Barack Obama's grandmother is gravely ill. Obama will fly to Hawaii on Thursday to be with his grandmother and will rejoin the campaign on Saturday. I thought that lately we had heard that we Dems...
Thursday Oct 16, 2008
1. McCain appears to have lost the debate, not on points but on presentation. I never thought the whole "anger" line would go anywhere, but that's because I assumed McCain wouldn't be so undisciplined that he would continually feed the...
Tuesday Oct 14, 2008
Did McCain Walk Into An Ayers Trap?
After the last debate, Sen. Barack Obama noted the McCain campaign was making "over-the-top attacks ... that he wasn't willing to say it to my face." Today, McCain responded that "I think he's probably ensured that it [Bill Ayers] will...
Tuesday Oct 14, 2008
Out of the gallons and gallons of swill that right-wing conservatives (well, John McCain) throw at the rest of the public on an hourly basis, one of the things that they wanted us to swallow was that Governor Sarah Palin...
Saturday Oct 11, 2008
Black man begs McCain to bring up Ayers
I thought it was odd that a Black man would stand up in a McCain rally and beg for McCain to take the gloves off. This guy is in the front row. So, was he just lucky to be in...
Wednesday Oct 8, 2008
A Stupid Strategy Sputters Out
Over at National Review's The Corner, there was distress and disappointment that Sen. John McCain didn't raise the scurillious guilt-by-association attacks that his campaign recently recycled. One lamented, "Obama comes off as just your average Center-Left politician ... You helped...
Monday Oct 6, 2008
Slightly more analysis of the Palin-Biden debate
There's been a lot of analysis of the Joe Biden-Sarah Palin debate. I think that any honest assessment of the debate reveals that Sarah Palin lost this debate. She lost in a number of ways. She lost the debate on...
Saturday Oct 4, 2008
The LiberalOasis Radio Show: Jeepers Veepers! Edition
Today at 10 AM ET, The LiberalOasis Radio Show was broadcast on WHMP-AM in Western MA. My special guest was Air Melber, correspondent for The Nation and The Washington Independent, who discussed the vice-presidential debate, the importance of Sen. John...
Saturday Sep 27, 2008
Obama in Greensboro earlier today
I don't want to say or even suggest that Senator John McCain lost the race for the White House last night in the first presidential debate, but I will say he really didn't help his cause. He spent most of...
Thursday Sep 25, 2008
Sarah Palin crashes and burns, again
I would like to see what Governor Sarah Palin's preparation entails. It doesn't seem that she actually prepares for anything. Tonight, she was on Katie Couric's CBS evening news. She's asked about Rick Davis, the campaign manager, whose lobbying...
Wednesday Sep 24, 2008
Updated: McCain suspends campaign
Desperate times call for desperate measures. When you are sinking in the polls like a brick and the Atlantic Ocean, you have to do something. one of his top campaign advisors, Rick Davis, is under fire for his lobbying efforts...
Friday Sep 19, 2008
Sean Hannity interviews Governor Sarah Palin in part one of their 140 part series (I have no idea how many parts of this series will be.) After the pleasantries, Fox News' Sean Hannity asks Governor Palin about the economy. She...
Wednesday Sep 10, 2008
Wednesday Sep 10, 2008
We've had five polls taken since the Republican National Convention was completed, not counting tracking polls which are not designed to reflect accurate snapshots of public opinion. Below are the results for "Registered Voters" in those five polls. (I am...
Tuesday Sep 9, 2008
Interview With Congressional Candidate Harry Taylor
Two years ago, Charlotte, NC commercial real estate broker Harry Taylor calmly spoke truth to power. At a rare public forum with President Bush, Taylor told him, "while I listen to you talk about freedom, I see you assert your...
Saturday Aug 23, 2008
Back in February I had a contest to see who could give me a reasonable argument for a VP candidate. Kyle won the contest and I published his comment. We had many candidates including Senator Joe Biden. I didn't...
Tuesday Aug 19, 2008
Keith Olbermann has slowly taken John McCain's speech at the VFW (veterans of foreign wars) and deconstructed it. He has pulled McCain's Iraq victory speech in 2003. This is the speech in which John McCain declared victory in Iraq and...
Wednesday Aug 6, 2008
Pundits from Bob Novak to Paul Krugman have argued that Sen. Barack Obama is underperforming because his lead of about 5 to 7 points lags behind how a "generic" Democrat fares in congressional election polls, leads ranging from 10 to...
Wednesday Jul 30, 2008
Gallup has been doing polling since the year 0 (Okay, I know there was no year 0 and Gallup has only been around for 70 years but you get my point.) Gallup released the results of 2 polls yesterday. One...
Tuesday Jul 22, 2008
I suspect the McCain campaign really believes Sen. Barack Obama is an inexperienced empty suit who is only good in front of a teleprompter. It's the only explanation for their foolish strategy. As said here before, making "experience" your main...
Thursday Jul 17, 2008
Interview With Senate candidate Mark Begich
One of the surprises in this election is that Alaska has a real chance of turning Blue. I had the chance at Netroots Nation to interview the man who is leading incumbent Senator Ted Stevens in recent polls, Anchorage Mayor...
Tuesday Jul 15, 2008
I last assessed the polls after two polls came out showing Obama with a double-digit lead. We haven't seen that margin replicated in polls since, though it's not the Obama number that has changed much -- it was at 51%...
Tuesday Jul 15, 2008
I like to laugh as much or more than the next guy. I can laugh at myself and my candidate. Unfortunately, I think that the New Yorker has gone too far. Barack Obama and his supporters have fought hard...
Wednesday Jul 9, 2008
Obama Just Can't Stop ... Not Shifting Rightward
In the past 48 hours, Obama has: 1) Re-affirmed his support for direct diplomacy with Iran, even after Iran conducted a missile test and McCain and his fellow necons couldn't barely keep themselves from drooling over the prospect of a...
Wednesday Jun 25, 2008
The Correction Almost Complete?
When tracking polls noted a momentum shift to Obama earlier in the month, I noted this did not look like a post-nomination "bump" that would fade, but a longer-lasting "correction" as Clinton backers gradually joined the Obama campaign. Two recent...
Friday Jun 20, 2008
This is not an argument that would get you very far with a conservative partisan or independent skeptic. But as far as I'm concerned, the financial advantage Sen. Barack Obama will likely have over Sen. John McCain because of Obama's...
Tuesday Jun 10, 2008
Some have noticed Obama's rise in the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls (which, as I've noted before, are designed to track momentum shifts, not give solid snapshots of where the public stands), and are calling it a post-nomination "bump." But...
Wednesday Jun 4, 2008
This was an unpleasant primary process. The Democratic Party which began proud of its historically diverse field of candidates ended up suffering from race and gender divisions. Yet, neither racism or sexism won the day. While questions about a female...
Sunday Jun 1, 2008
Hillary Clinton. Barack Obama. DNC Rules committee. Saturday. Yesterday. Did you see that? Unity my butt. It was WWF, winner take all. Let's get ready to fumble!!! The Democratic party is on the verge of doing a Leon Lett. Leon...
Friday May 30, 2008
MSNBC's First Read observes: CBN's Brody has a sitdown with McCain senior adviser Charlie Black. Check out how many times Black utters the word "experience" in this one answer: "Senator Obama for all his magnetism and appeal is not very...
Monday May 26, 2008
What an interesting and downright confusing week for John McCain's political campaign. I'm not sure that there was any good news that came out of Senator McCain's camp this week. As a matter of fact, this week reminded me of...
Sunday May 25, 2008
McCain Campaign Lies About The Polls
The NY Times today quotes a McCain campaign adviser defending the campaign's performance because even though "the Republican Party brand is very, very badly damaged, ... Senator McCain is running even or ahead of Senator Obama in most national polls."...
Saturday May 24, 2008
Access to McCain's medical records - a joke
(Editor's note: Errington Thompson is a Medical Doctor.) A hand selected group of reporters (only 20 people) was allowed to access 1,173 pages of Senator John McCain's medical records for three hours. No one was allowed to Xerox or photograph...
Tuesday May 20, 2008
On MSNBC a few minutes ago, Obama foreign policy adviser Susan Rice just called McCain to task for not recognizing that Ahmadinejad isn't actually the leader of Iran -- a key point that LiberalOasis has long said should be central...
Saturday May 17, 2008
Obama takes on Bush and McCain
Straight and to the point. Barack Obama directly responded to President Bush's appeasement comment and then turned to John McCain. Barack Obama correctly stated that John McCain has offered to difference between himself and George Bush on foreign policy. Here...
Tuesday May 6, 2008
A couple of times yesterday on cable TV, I saw a clip of Obama, during a NC town hall, respond to a voter's question about how can win in November. The Wall Street Journal "Washington Wire" recounts his answer: "I...
Tuesday Apr 29, 2008
Indiana May Come Down To Sincere Independents vs. Mischievous GOPers
From a new poll analysis by Howey Politics Indiana: There appears to be two kinds of Republicans: the "Obamacans" as the Illinois senator likes to call them - earnest Republicans deeply disappointed in their own party's performance on the budget,...
Wednesday Apr 23, 2008
In my hypothetical scenario below, I presumed 40% turnout. Looks like PA will have more than 53% turnout, the biggest of the year. That diluted the impact of the new voters the Obama campaign got to register as Democrats --...
Tuesday Apr 22, 2008
There are 4.2 million Democratic voters in Pennsylvania, about 325,000 more than last year. Of the new voters, the Obama campaign believes it has registered 200,000 supporters. That's in sync with polling of new voters, indicating 62% of new voters...
Wednesday Apr 16, 2008
Republicans Find Straw, And Grasp
Four months ago, I observed that Republicans hadn't figured out how to run against Sen. Barack Obama, and when asked, they flailed and floundered. Now, they think they have their script: the elitist snob, complete with logo. Can't blame them...
Wednesday Mar 26, 2008
Over the last week, we have seen Lindsey Graham in Iraq with John McCain. We have seen him in the holy land with John McCain. He went on some of the Sunday shows praising the Surge like John McCain. What's...
Thursday Mar 6, 2008
While it is always fun watching Bill beat himself up, I'm not sure it's all that useful. Several things happened in Ohio and Texas which were unforeseen. Barack Obama changed his style and delivery. We saw it first in Houston....
Tuesday Mar 4, 2008
First off, I'm surprised that it appears close today. As I said after Wisconsin, I thought March 4 voters would recognize that at this point, it's either Barack Obama or a Brokered Convention, and they're terrified of the latter. But...
Thursday Feb 28, 2008
The great political strength of Obama's campaign is his ability to attract support from independents (and Republicans) to build a working majority and a clear mandate to achieve big goals -- ending the Iraq occupation, engaging Iran, fighting global warming,...
Thursday Feb 28, 2008
McCain serves up a zinger but the return is too hot to handle
I think that this dovetails into what Bill wrote previously about McCain. He is going to have trouble slinging mud at Obama. He is going to have a lot of trouble. I'll try and explain what happened yesterday and I'll...
Tuesday Feb 26, 2008
Why McCain's Attacks Will Likely Fail
A friend of mine emailed me yesterday, asking for my take on Mark Halperin's analysis: Things McCain Can Do to Try to Beat Obama That Clinton Cannot In the past, I have not been impressed with Halperin's understanding of American...
Sunday Feb 17, 2008
From ABC's This Week today: SEN. JOHN MCCAIN: ...we'll argue about whether we should increase your taxes or decrease them. Obviously, I'm for decreases in taxes. Maybe Americans want their taxes increased. We'll argue about -- GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: ... for...
Thursday Feb 14, 2008
I have had some GREAT entries at Where's the Outrage for this contest. I would only add 2 things. First, the contest will close Friday at midnight. Secondly, historically, the VP "balances" the ticket. The VP should bring in a...
Friday Feb 8, 2008
Obama-Clinton on Health Care: Little Difference
The notion that Clinton's health care plan is decidedly more progressive and inclusive that Obama's plan has really taken hold in some corners, to the point where it's become commonplace to treat Obama's as less than universal health care. But...
Wednesday Feb 6, 2008
NPR's Bryant Park Project had me back on today to analyze the Super Tuesday's results, along with Dan McClaughlin of RedState.com. Click here to listen to the podcast....
Tuesday Feb 5, 2008
If you live in a Super Tuesday state, don't forget to vote. Don't forget to vote your principles. Don't forget to vote for the person who you think best represents your principles. Because the most principled person is likely to...
Sunday Feb 3, 2008
Who is the best VP running mate?
You only need to supply 2 answers to these 2 questions. There is no bridge of death. You can enter as many times as you want. If Hillary Clinton wins the democratic nomination who would be her best running...
Wednesday Jan 30, 2008
Sen. John McCain is not yet the nominee, but obviously looks more plausible then when I wrote "Last Gasp of McCain?" two weeks ago (damn this topsy-turvey election season!). And at this moment, McCain certainly polls the best against Clinton...
Tuesday Jan 29, 2008
There is nothing sadder than someone who thinks that they are smarter than everyone else then they find out publicly that they ain't so smart. Early on, mayor Rudy Giuliani thought up this plan that he wouldn't campaign any where...
Monday Jan 14, 2008
Here's my CNN segment from earlier this evening, with TownHall.com's Amanda Carpenter, discussing race and gender politics in the presidential primary. (The audio and video are not quite in sync. Not sure why, but I will try to fix it.)...
Friday Jan 11, 2008
I'm a surgeon and not a pollster. I do know something about statistics and probabilities. I also know that since the year 2000 whatever election does not go the way someone wants voter fraud is scream from the highest rafters....
Wednesday Jan 9, 2008
There are 2 jobs that I'm thinking about looking into - weatherman and the other is pollster. The weatherman is the only job that I know of that you can be wrong over 50% of the time and still get...
Tuesday Jan 8, 2008
New Hampshire has this quirk in their state law. The town of Dixville Notch votes before anyone else. The town of 17 people vote the night before anyone else. Here are the results. Democrats: Obama 7 Edwards 2 Richardson 1...
Tuesday Jan 8, 2008
Obama chats with Brian Williams
Senator Barack Obama sat down and talked with Brian Williams today. In lengthy interviews, Obama is able to show his thoughtfulness on the issues. With the New Hampshire primary coming tomorrow, 2 new polls (USA Today- Gallup and CNN-WMUR) show...
Friday Jan 4, 2008
Principled Unity for Dems, Battle for Least Worst for GOPers
So I went 1 for 2 at the prediction game. I'll start with where I went wrong. I presumed that the anti-Huckabee vote would coalesce around the guy with the money, machine and ads. In turn, I presumed that folks...
Wednesday Jan 2, 2008
Electoral predictions are a sucker's game, but I already played it Monday on WHMP's First Night broadcast, so I might as well play it here. In Iowa, I'll give Obama the edge, and Romney winning with more of a cushion....
Tuesday Jan 1, 2008
A little bit of this and a little of that
Happy New Year to everyone. I hope that everyone has a happy, healthy, prosperous and progressive New Year! We have 3 separate scenarios of how Benazir Bhutto died. 1) She was shot in the neck. 2) An explosion cause shrapnel...
Tuesday Jan 1, 2008
MTP - Ron Paul: Get Rid of Income Tax
Republican candidate Ron Paul is an Internet sensation. He has raised more money in one day on the Internet than any other candidate -- Republican or Democrat. He was on Meet the Press two weeks ago. The first question that...
Thursday Dec 13, 2007
Four years ago, I wrote that it looked like Howard Dean was going to coast in Iowa because his competitors shied away from direct attacks in what was their last scheduled debate. Of course, that was way off. His rivals...
Sunday Nov 4, 2007
New USA Today - Gallup poll reveals exactly how unhappy we are with the current state of affairs. 26% of Americans are satisfied with the direction of the country. Unless you are rich or have your head in the sand,...
Thursday Feb 22, 2007
The front page of today's New York Daily News said it all. In between pictures of Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, read the words: "Two Years Of This?" That said it all because it not only summed up the...
Tuesday Feb 20, 2007
The Republicans' Secular Problem
In recent days, there's been another round of heated dialogue within the Left about perceived slights against both religious and nonreligious liberals. Hopefully, this round will lead to additional understanding, since we need a strong religious-nonreligious coalition to best stand...
Thursday Feb 8, 2007
The ginned-up controversy about John Edwards' campaign bloggers Amanda Marcotte and Melissa McEwan, partly driven by Michelle Malkin, moves me to share a personal story. As I have mentioned before, Michelle and I went to Oberlin together in the early...
Wednesday Nov 8, 2006
Aren't You Glad You Didn't Move To Canada?
Yes, we can win when we stay and fight for our country. There is much, much work to do before we truly win back America, but this feeling should remind us that it can be done. Some observations on this...
Tuesday Nov 7, 2006
GO VOTE! The only way to get election reform is to dislodge the GOP by overwhleming the system with turnout. If you have any problems, make sure you at least vote with a provisional ballot, and then contact one or...
Tuesday Nov 7, 2006
Greg Palast, from a 2004 interview with LiberalOasis: ...what we have now is the Help America Vote Act, and when the Bush family tells us they're going to help us vote, we better be concerned. And from the AP today:...
Monday Nov 6, 2006
It's the day after Election Day. Democrats have just earned a resounding victory. But while they're basking in the glow, the highest-ranking Republican in Washington steps up to the mic and fires a warning shot -- there may be a...
Thursday Nov 2, 2006
The Midterm Dynamic Remains The Same
We've gone through various scandals and flaps during October, but the midterm dynamic really hasn't changed much as we head into the final weak. As described here a month ago: it's the littany of failures from six years of Republican...
Thursday Oct 5, 2006
Will Foley Scandal Take Out Lieberman Too?
Speaker Dennis Hastert looks like he's about to be thrown overboard, and Sen. Joe Lieberman apparently wants to be the anchor, so they can hit bottom together. Incredibly, Lieberman saw the growing scandal as some sort of opportunity to show...
Monday Oct 2, 2006
The Midterm Dynamic (or, What Mark Halperin Doesn't Understand About America)
Republicans have done everything possible in the last two years to sabotage their chances of keeping Congress. They lost control of Iraq. They lost New Orleans altogether. They believed Social Security privatization was a political winner. They rallied around the...
Tuesday Sep 26, 2006
LiberalOasis has been critical of Washington Dems for not nationalizing the election around a " target="_blank">set of core principles. Yet Washington Dems have been working to prevent Republicans from nationalizing the election around dishonest right-wing terrorism frames. They got in...
Tuesday Sep 19, 2006
(Note: the following was posted at The Huffington Post earlier today) I'm afraid of what might happen after the midterms, November 7. If Democrats fail to earn control of one or both houses, I fear grassroots Democrats and liberals may...
Tuesday Aug 22, 2006
The Election Will Not Be Nationalized
With the Republican White House and Republican Congress suffering abysmal poll numbers, Republican candidates will not "nationalize" the election by running on a coordinated message and agenda. Instead, some candidates will be putting distance between themselves and Dubya on issues...
Friday Aug 18, 2006
LiberalOasis is a little loathe to write about the CT Senate race so soon after the primary. The race already risks getting disproportionate attention, as there are several other races that will determine control of Congress. But yesterday's Quinnipiac poll...
Wednesday Aug 16, 2006
Will Allen's Racism Hand Dems The Senate?
Last week, professional political handicapper Charlie Cook updated his House and Senate ratings. In the Senate, Cook rates six Senate seats currently held by Republicans as "toss-ups," compared to only one Dem-held seat. If there is a Dem "wave" in...
Thursday Aug 10, 2006
War Opposition Hits 60%; GOP To Run On War
The chronically unpopular Bush Administration, drowning in crises around the world, thought they had a political opportunity in Ned Lamont's victory over Joe Lieberman. An opportunity to recycle old McCarthyite distortions of Democrats. In yesterday's press briefing, WH Spokesman Tony...
Wednesday Jul 19, 2006
Betting On The Fringe Fundamentalists
The Cook Political Report lists six incumbent GOP Senators as being in competitive '06 re-election races: Conrad Burns (MT), Lincoln Chafee (RI), Mike DeWine (OH), John Kyl (AZ), Rick Santorum (PA) and Jim Talent (MO). A seventh, George Allen (VA),...
