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How Many Americans Said No to War? NEW YORK, NY -- March 14, 2003 On February 15 more than 12 million people all over the world loudly and visibly said no to war in Iraq. A total of between 862,282 and 1,033,839 of these were Americans, accounting for six to nine percent of the demonstrators worldwide. While the U.S. media focused on the two large protests that occurred in New York and San Francisco, between 222,282 and 333,839 Americans demonstrated for peace in at least 285 other communities of all sizes in all fifty states. This study is the product of three weeks of research using national and local news sources and direct local organizer contacts. Following this introduction, you will find: DATA -- a state-by-state breakdown of all anti-war events in the U.S. known to us, listing where each occurred, a low and high participation estimate, and our sources for the information In the course of our research, we discovered a diversity of creative approaches that peace groups used to get their message out. Here are a few demonstrations most Americans probably did not hear about in their local news: In Maine, Peace Action organized demonstrators in at least twenty-four communities across the state to stand on local bridges, transforming them into "Bridges for Peace". This included demonstrators in Calais who joined Canadians on the bridge connecting the two nations. In Tucson, Arizona, about 200 protestors broke into small groups and walked or carpooled to gas stations to hold signs reminding consumers of the direct relationship between the nation's foreign policy and their personal dependence on oil. In Sandpoint, Idaho, the February 15 peace rally marked the beginning of a seven-day, 168-hour continuous peace vigil. In Atlanta, the International Action Center organized a "Peace Caravan" made up of a large flatbed truck equipped with a sound system, followed by a bus and thirty to fifty vans and cars full of demonstrators. The caravan traveled over forty miles through Atlanta neighborhoods, making stops at six shopping areas with a final rally at the last stop. This strategy spread the message to thousands who would not have seen a stationary event and, according to organizers, elicited honks of approval wherever the caravan traveled. In Santa Monica, California, a group called Peace on the Beach ended its all-day event by organizing between 5,000 and 6,000 demonstrators into a huge human representation of Picasso's work "The Face of Peace." An aerial photograph of the human artwork can be seen in the Santa Monica Mirror. Every Midwest and Southeast organizer we spoke to mentioned the weather, either snow, freezing rain, or extreme cold. The blizzard that swept much of the country, dumping two feet of snow in many places, certainly reduced overall turnout, yet events went on as scheduled. An organizer in Portsmouth, Ohio, where snow conditions caused the Governor to declare a state of emergency by Sunday morning, told us, "We expected over 200 people, except in the worst-case scenario -- which is what we had." Even so, 75 to 85 Portsmouth residents braved the blizzard. We attempted to document every February 15 peace event in the U.S. Undoubtedly, there were many more. We welcome any information that would make this and future studies more complete (lessoilforlife @ yahoo.com). Every attempt was made to count each protestor only once. Therefore, while it appears that no protests occurred in Connecticut, Rhode Island and New Jersey, this is not the case at all. The thousands who attended rallies in their hometowns before boarding trains or buses to New York have been counted as part of the New York rally. Unless otherwise noted, all protests occurred on Saturday, February 15; for various reasons, in eight communities the main peace event of the weekend actually occurred on February 14, 16 or 17. The numbers for these events, which include San Francisco, are included in our data because they were organized in solidarity with the worldwide February 15 demonstrations. The abbreviation "d.o.c." stands for "direct organizer contact", and signifies an estimate obtained by contact with a local organizer, either by email or telephone. In some cases, particularly in smaller communities, event organizers we communicated with were not associated with named organizations. News sources listed as active links redirect to available online articles. Other news sources are not currently available online. Alabama 537 - 773 --------------------------------- Birmingham 400-600 (Birmingham News) Mobile 117-143 (Mobile Register) Montgomery 20-30 (WSFA-12TV) Alaska 1,806 - 2,460 --------------------------------- Anchorage 270-330 (Anchorage Daily News) Fairbanks 315-385 (Fairbanks Daily News-Miner) Gustavus 35-45 (d.o.c. Juneau Friends) Haines no information available Juneau 1,000 (d.o.c. Juneau Friends) - 1,500 (Fairbanks Daily News-Miner) Sitka 186-200 (d.o.c. Sitkans for Peace & Justice) Arizona 4,190 - 4,950 --------------------------------- Benson no information available Bisbee 300-500 (d.o.c.) Flagstaff 1,200 (d.o.c. Flagstaff Activist Network) -1,400 (The Arizona Republic) Phoenix 2,500 (Associated Press) - 2,850 (Infoshop News) Tucson 190-200 (d.o.c. Tucson Peace Action Coalit.) Arkansas 750 - 850 --------------------------------- Fayetteville 300 (d.o.c.Ark.Citizens Against War on Iraq) Fort Smith no information available Little Rock 450-550 (Associated Press) California 272,210 - 350,834 --------------------------------- Calexico no information available Carlsbad 540-660 (d.o.c. S.D. Coalition for Peace & Justice) Chico 200-800 (Chico Enterprise-Record) Encinitas 75 (d.o.c. S.D. Coalition for Peace & Justice) Encino no information available Fresno 1,350-1,650 (Fresno Bee) La Selva Beach no information available Laguna Beach 180-220 (Orange County Register) Long Beach 1,250-1,500 (Long Beach News) Los Angeles 30,000-100,000 (Associated Press) Mt. Shasta 333-350 (MtShastaLive) Oceanside 225-250 (d.o.c. S.D. Coalition for Peace & Justice) Orange 1,800-2,400 (Orange County Register) Palm Desert 90-110 (Desert Sun) Palm Springs 143-150 (Desert Sun) Palmdale 100-120 (L.A. Daily News) Redding 180-220 (Redding Record Searchlight) Sacramento 8,000 (San Francisco Chronicle) San Diego 5,500 (San Diego Union-Tribune) - 7,000 downtown (d.o.c. S.D. Coalition for Peace & Justice) San Diego 600-660 Naval Stn. (d.o.c. S.D. Coalition for Peace & Justice) San Francisco 200,000 (San Francisco Chronicle) Occurred on 2/16, due to 2/15 Chinese New Year parade San Jose 3,500-4,000 (San Francisco Chronicle) San Luis Obispo 1,769 (d.o.c. Passion for Peace) Occurred on 2/16 Santa Barbara 5,000-6,000 (U.C.S.B. Daily Nexus) Santa Cruz 5,000-7,000 (Santa Cruz Sentinel) Santa Monica 5,000-6,000 (Santa Monica Mirror) Sonora 1,000-1,200 (Union Democrat) Tehachapi 75-100 (d.o.c. Tehachapi Folks For Peace) Vallejo 300-600 (Vallejo News) Colorado 4,212 - 4,918 --------------------------------- Boulder no information available Breckenridge 11-13 (Summit Daily News) Colorado Springs 2,700-3,300 (Rocky Mountain News) Colorado Springs (Peterson AFB) 300 (Rocky Mountain News) Cortez 80 (d.o.c.) Durango 500-600 (Durango Herald) Fort Collins 250 (Antiwar.com) Frisco 21-25 (Summit Daily News) Grand Junction 350 (Daily Sentinel) Connecticut --------------------------------- All events that we are aware of in CT preceded travel to the NYC event. Demonstrators are counted there. Delaware 400 - 500 --------------------------------- Newark 400 (Wilmington News Journal) - 500 (d.o.c. Newark Citizens for Peace & Justice) District of Columbia --------------------------------- We are unaware of any peace events in D.C. on 2/15. Florida 3,821 - 5,207 --------------------------------- Daytona Beach 198-220 (Embry-Riddle Avion) Deland 100-120 (d.o.c.) Jacksonville 150-180 (Florida Times-Union) Melbourne 400-600 (FloridaToday) Miami 675-825 (Sun-Sentinel) Naples 180 (Naples Daily News) - 187 (d.o.c. Pax Christi Naples) Orlando 200-800 (Sun-Sentinel) Pensacola 225-275 (Pensacola News Journal) Sarasota 450-550 (Sun-Sentinel) St. Augustine 405-495 (Florida Times-Union) St. Petersburg 30 (St. Petersburg Times) Sunrise 158 (Sun-Sentinel) - 180 (d.o.c. Broward Anti-War Coalition) Tallahassee 450-500 (Florida State University View) Weeki Wachee 20-25 (Hernando Today) West Palm Beach 180-220 (Sun-Sentinel) Georgia 1,308 - 1,648 --------------------------------- Athens 500 (Athens Banner-Herald) Atlanta 500 (Atlanta Journal-Constitution) - 800 (d.o.c. Intl. Action Center, Atlanta) Atlanta (CNN) 20 (d.o.c. Intl. Action Ctr., Atlanta) Gainesville 18 (d.o.c.) Savannah 180-200 (Savannah Morning News) Valdosta 90-110 (Valdosta State University Spectator) Hawaii 1,048 - 1,103 --------------------------------- Capt. Cook/Kona 300 (d.o.c. Rally for Peace) Hilo 248-303 (Honolulu Advertiser) Pearl Harbor 500 (Honolulu Advertiser) Idaho 1,740 - 2,000 --------------------------------- Boise 900-1,100 (Idaho Statesman) Driggs no information available Ketchum 200 (d.o.c. Idaho Peace Coalition) Moscow 440 (Daily Evergreen) - 500 (d.o.c. Idaho Peace Coalition) Pocatello 100 (d.o.c. Idaho Peace Coalition) Sandpoint 100 (d.o.c. Northern Panhandle Green Party) Illinois 5,943 - 8,203 --------------------------------- Carbondale 200-240 (Southern Illinoisan) Chicago 5,000 (Chicago Sun-Times) - 7,000 (d.o.c. Feb.15 Mobilization Coalition) Galesburg 45-55 (d.o.c.Knox Cty Anti-War Peace Coalit) Macomb 68-83 (Macomb Eagle) Normal 100-120 (Bloomington-Normal Pantagraph) Occurred 2/14, in order to deliver a petition to city hall. Peoria 55 (Peoria Journal Star) - 80 (d.o.c. Peoria Area Peace Network) Rockford 275 (Rock River Times) - 325 (d.o.c. Rockford Urban Ministries) St. Charles 200-300 (d.o.c. Fox Valley Citizens for Peace) Indiana 1,870 - 2,070 --------------------------------- Bloomington 500 (Indiana Daily Student) Fort Wayne 300 (Herald-Times) Greencastle 50 (d.o.c. DePauw University) Indianapolis 450 (Indianapolis Star) - 650 (d.o.c. Indy Iraq Action) Lafayette 120 (d.o.c. Lafayette Area Peace Coalition) South Bend 450 (d.o.c. Center for Peace & Nonviolence) Iowa 990 - 1,110 --------------------------------- Cedar Rapids 30-40 (d.o.c.) Decorah 50 (d.o.c.) Des Moines 450 - 500 (KCCI-TV Iowa) Occurred on Feb. 16 Dubuque 100 (Telegraph Herald) - 120 (d.o.c. Dubuque Peace & Justice) Iowa City 360-400 (KCRG-TV Iowa) Waterloo no information available Kansas 2,194 - 2,640 --------------------------------- Lawrence 1,440 - 1,760 (Topeka Capital-Journal) Manhattan 167 (Topeka Capital-Journal) Newton 405-495 (Topeka Capital-Journal) Pittsburg 72-88 (Joplin Globe) Topeka 20 (Topeka Capital-Journal) Wichita 90-110 (KAKE-10 TV) Kentucky 900 - 1,000 --------------------------------- Louisville 900-1,000 (Associated Press) Louisiana 720 - 1,220 --------------------------------- New Orleans 700-1,200 (organizer website) Shreveport 20 (Shreveport Times) Maine 2,509 - 3,131 --------------------------------- Augusta 72-88 (Kennebec Journal-Morning Sentinel) Bangor 500 (Portland Press Herald) Bath 70 (d.o.c. Maine Peace Action) Belfast 10 (d.o.c. Maine Peace Action) Calais 3 (d.o.c. Maine Peace Action) Camden 36-44 (Camden Herald) Clinton 5-10 (d.o.c. Maine Peace Action) Damariscotta 60-80 (d.o.c. Maine Peace Action) Eastport 17 (d.o.c. Maine Peace Action) Ellsworth 75-80 (d.o.c. Maine Peace Action) Falmouth 15 (d.o.c. Maine Peace Action) Farmington 27-33 (MaineToday) Gardiner 10 (d.o.c. Maine Peace Action) Kezar Falls 10 (d.o.c. Maine Peace Action) Lewiston 30 (d.o.c. Maine Peace Action) Lincolnville 9-11 (Camden Herald) Lubec 10 (d.o.c. Maine Peace Action) Portland 1,100-1,650 (Portland Press Herald) Presque Isle 150 (d.o.c. Maine Peace Action) Rockland 40-50 (d.o.c. Maine Peace Action) Saco 30 (d.o.c. Maine Peace Action) Topsham 10 (d.o.c. Maine Peace Action) Waterville 200 (d.o.c. Maine Peace Action) Wiscasset 20 (d.o.c. Maine Peace Action) Maryland 450 - 550 --------------------------------- Baltimore 450-550 (Baltimore Sun) Massachusetts 700 - 780 --------------------------------- Hadley 95 (Union-News/Sunday Republican) - 120 (d.o.c. Hadley Greens) Hyannis 150 (Cape Cod Times) Montague Center 75-80 (d.o.c.) Provincetown 30 (d.o.c. Cape Codders for Peace & Justice) Vineyard Haven 100 (d.o.c. Martha's Vineyard Peace Council) Williamstown 250-300 (North Adams Transcript) Michigan 3,527 - 4,107 --------------------------------- Detroit 1,350-1,650 (Lansing State Journal) Grand Rapids no information available Holland 330 (Holland Sentinel) - 350 (d.o.c. Strategic Pastoral Action) Joplin no information available Lansing 1,750 (Lansing State Journal) - 2,000 (Lansing City Pulse) South Haven 50-60 (d.o.c. Peace Through Action) Whitehall 47 (d.o.c. White Lake Peace Team) Minnesota 8,390 - 10,218 --------------------------------- Minneapolis 6,750-8,250 (Grand Forks Herald) Moorhead 1,500-1,800 (Grand Forks Herald) St. Cloud 140-168 (Grand Forks Herald) Mississippi 496 - 693 --------------------------------- Biloxi 45-55 (Clarion-Ledger) Hattiesburg 45-55 (Hattiesburg American) Jackson (Ridgewood Court) 11-13 (Clarion-Ledger) Jackson (Tougaloo College) 135-165 (Clarion-Ledger) Oxford 150-180 (Clarion-Ledger) Starkville 110 (Starkville Daily News) - 225 (d.o.c.) Missouri 5,083 - 6,749 --------------------------------- Cape Girardeau 81-99 (Southeast Missourian) Columbia 630-770 (Southeast Missourian) Fayette 60 (d.o.c. Mid-Missouri Peaceworks) Jefferson City 160-192 (Jefferson City News-Tribune) Kansas City 2,000-3,000 (Kansas City Star) Occurred on Feb. 16. Rolla 100-120 (d.o.c. Rolla Area Citizens For Peace) Springfield 180-220 (KOLR-10 TV) St. Joseph 72-88 (St. Joseph News-Press) St. Louis 1,800-2,200 (St. Louis Post-Dispatch) West Plains no information available Montana 4,250 - 6,270 --------------------------------- Billings 100-120 (Billings Gazette) Helena 150 (Antiwar.com) Missoula 4,000-6,000 (Missoulian) Occurred on Feb. 16. Nebraska --------------------------------- Lincoln no information available Omaha 2/15 event postponed until 2/17 due to blizzard, no further information available Nevada 1,000 - 1,530 --------------------------------- Carson City no information available Las Vegas 420 (Las Vegas Mercury) - 900 (d.o.c. Coalition to Prevent Erosion of Human Rights) Minden 400 (Reno Gazette-Journal) - 410 (d.o.c.) Reno 180-220 (Reno Gazette-Journal) New Hampshire 570 - 1,000 --------------------------------- Concord 570 (Nashua Telegraph) - 1,000 (d.o.c.) New Jersey --------------------------------- All events that we are aware of in NJ preceded travel to NYC event. Demonstrators are counted there. New Mexico 4,927 - 8,484 --------------------------------- Farmington 107-130 (d.o.c. San Juan Peace Coalition) Las Cruces 200-210 (d.o.c. PeaceAware) Santa Fe 4,500 (Associated Press) - 8,000 (Santa Fe New Mexican) Silver City 120-144 (Silver City Sun-News) New York 440,461 - 500,539 --------------------------------- Canton 350-400 (d.o.c. Alternatives to War) Croton-on-Hudson no information available New York 440,000 (New York Times) - 500,000 (d.o.c. United for Peace & Justice, NY) North Creek 5 (d.o.c.) Plattsburgh 20 (Press Republican) - 30 (d.o.c.) Rhinebeck 50-60 (d.o.c.) Watertown 36-44 (Watertown Daily News) North Carolina 9,950 - 12,020 --------------------------------- Asheville 2,000 (Associated Press) Boone 200-800 (Mountain Times) Charlotte 500 (Associated Press) - 550 (Charlotte Observer) Morehead City 180-220 (Jacksonville Daily News) Pittsboro 270-300 (d.o.c.) Raleigh 6,500 (Raleigh News & Observer) - 7,700 (Charlotte Observer) Wilmington 300 (Associated Press) - 450 (d.o.c.) North Dakota 200 - 230 --------------------------------- Bismark 150-180 (Bismarck Tribune) Fargo no information available May be same as Moorehead MN event Grand Forks 50 (Antiwar.com) Ohio 4,394 - 4,964 --------------------------------- Akron 500 (The Beacon Journal) Beavercreek no information available Canton 200 (Canton Repository) - 210 (d.o.c.) Cincinnati 500 (Canton Repository) - 700 (d.o.c. Intercommunity Justice & Peace Ctr) Cleveland 1,200-1,440 (Plain Dealer) Columbus downtown 800 (d.o.c. Central Ohio Peace Action) Capital Univ. 50 (d.o.c. Central Ohio Peace Action) Clintonville 150 (d.o.c. Central Ohio Peace Action) Coshocton 40 (d.o.c. Central Ohio Peace Action) Dayton 70 (d.o.c.) Findlay 200-240 (Findlay Courier) Granville 27-33 (d.o.c.) Kettering 20 (d.o.c.) Mansfield 22-26 (Mansfield News Journal) Mount Vernon 90-100 (d.o.c. Knox County Voices for Peace) Portsmouth 75 (d.o.c. & Portsmouth Daily Times) - 85 (d.o.c. Portsmouth Area Peace Coalition) Shaker Heights 150 (Antiwar.com) Youngstown 300 (Youngstown Vindicator) - 350 (d.o.c.) Oklahoma 300 --------------------------------- Tulsa 300 (d.o.c. Tulsa Peace Fellowship) Oregon 4,800 - 6,400 --------------------------------- Ashland/Medford 500 (d.o.c. Peace House) Eugene 2,500 (Olympian) - 4,000 (d.o.c.) Portland 400-500 (Oregonian) Salem 1,400 (Willamette Week) Pennsylvania 11,034 - 11,125 --------------------------------- Butler 185 (d.o.c. Pittsburgh Thomas Merton Center) - 200 (KYW-TV3) Erie 150 (Erie Times-News [goerie.com]) Lancaster 300 (d.o.c. Lancaster Peace Coalition) Meadville 225 (KYW-TV3) - 275 (NEPA News) Philadelphia 10,000 (NBC News) Pittsburgh 41 (KYW-TV3) - 50 (NEPA News) Wilkes-Barre 60-72 (Citizen's Voice) Williamsport 43 (d.o.c.) York 30 (York Dispatch/Sunday News) - 35 (d.o.c. People for Peace York PA) Rhode Island --------------------------------- All events that we are aware of in RI preceded travel to NYC event. Demonstrators are counted there. South Carolina 430 - 545 --------------------------------- Charleston 180-220 (Charleston Post & Courier) Columbia 250 (Charlotte Observer) - 325 (d.o.c.) South Dakota 255 - 275 --------------------------------- Rushmore 100-120 (d.o.c.SD Peace & Justice Coalition) Sioux Falls 155 (d.o.c.SD Peace & Justice Coalition) Tennessee 1,795 - 2,125 --------------------------------- Chatanooga 270-300 (Chattanooga Times Free Press) Knoxville 800 (d.o.c. Knoxville Area Coalition for Compassion, Justice & Peace) - 950 (WVLT-TV) Memphis 225-275 (Commercial Appeal) Nashville 500-600 (Tennessean) Texas 18,748 - 21,258 --------------------------------- Amarillo 3 (d.o.c.) Austin 10,000 (Associated Press) Corpus Christi 300 (Corpus Christi Caller-Times) - 450 (d.o.c. Patriots for America) Dallas 3,500-4,000 (S.M.U. Daily Campus) Denton 180-220 (North Texas Daily) Fredericksburg 250 (Antiwar.com) Galveston no information available Houston 3,400 (d.o.c. Harris Cty Green Party) - 5,000 (Houston Police Department) McAllen 90-110 (WOAI - San Antonio) Midland no information available San Antonio 1,000-1,200 (San Antonio Express-News) Temple 25 (d.o.c. Bell Co. Green Party) Utah 531 - 631 --------------------------------- Logan 75 (d.o.c.) Moab 6 (d.o.c.) Salt Lake City 450-550 (Salt Lake Tribune) Vermont 1,350 - 2,000 --------------------------------- Burlington 350 (d.o.c.) - 500 (WCAX-TV3) Montpelier 1,000 (Associated Press) - 1,500 (d.o.c. Burlington Peace & Justice Center) Virginia 980 - 1,000 --------------------------------- Blacksburg 400 (Roanoke Times) Charlottesville no information available Norfolk 250 (d.o.c.) Roanoke 90-110 (Roanoke Times) Williamsburg 240 (d.o.c. Community of Faith for Peace) Washington 27,074 - 29,247 --------------------------------- Bellevue 200-800 (Antiwar.com) Bellingham 900-1,100 (Olympian) Bremerton 150-200 (Olympian) Colville 130 (d.o.c. Colville Veterans for Peace) Coupeville 11-13 (Olympian) Ellensburg 193 (Daily Record) - 226 (d.o.c.) Leavenworth no information available Longview 27-33 (Olympian) Olympia 2,250-2,750 (Olympian) Seattle 20,000 (Seattle Post-Intelligencer) Spokane 1,800-2,200 (Olympian) Tacoma 900-1,100 (Olympian) Vancouver 180-220 (Olympian) Yakima 333 (Yakima Herald-Republic) - 475 (d.o.c. Yakima Valley Peace Advocates Ntwk) West Virginia 90 - 110 --------------------------------- Spencer 90-110 (Times Record) Wisconsin 3,349 - 6,072 --------------------------------- Ashland 300-360 (d.o.c.) Kenosha 40 (Antiwar.com) Madison 900-1,100 (The Badger-Herald) Milwaukee 700-3,000 (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) Racine 59-72 (Racine Journal Times) Richland Center no information available Wausau 1,350-1,500 (Wausau Daily Herald) Wyoming --------------------------------- Cheyenne no information available; occurred 2/16 (1) Every attempt was made to count each protestor only once. Therefore, while it appears that no protests occurred in Connecticut, Rhode Island and New Jersey, this is not the case at all. The thousands who attended rallies in their hometowns before boarding trains or buses to New York have been counted as part of the New York rally. (2) Unless otherwise noted, all protests occurred on February 15. For various reasons, in eight communities the main peace event of the weekend actually occurred on February 14 (Normal IL), February 16 (San Francisco, San Luis Obispo CA, Des Moines, Kansas City MO, Missoula, Cheyenne), or February 17 (Omaha). The numbers for these events, which include the second largest demonstration in the country, are included in our data because they were organized in solidarity with the worldwide February 15 demonstrations. (3) Low and high estimates for each state were obtained by adding the columns of low and high estimates for all events within the state. (4) Generally each city name is followed by a low and high estimate as well as the source for each figure. (5) A single source indicates that the same source provided both the low and high estimates. (6) "d.o.c." is an abbreviation for "direct organizer contact", and signifies an estimate obtained by contact with a local organizer, either by email or telephone. In some cases, particularly in smaller communities, event organizers we communicated with were not associated with named organizations. (7) "no information available" indicates that we are sure an event occurred in a given community but have been unable to obtain any size estimates. (8) In the eight cases where "Antiwar.com" is cited as a source we could obtain no other size estimate. These numbers were posted on Antiwar.com in the days following the events and proved to be quite accurate in all cases when they could be compared with our findings. (9) The following table, using 1,000 as an example number (X), shows how we interpreted the imprecise numerical phrases journalists often use when reporting about protests. When a source containing one of these expressions represented either the high or low estimate for a given city, we averaged the two extremes of the range. "several thousand" = low: 4,000; high: 6,000 For the following expressions we used a low estimate of 90% of X and a high estimate of 110% of X: "about 1000" = (900; 1,100) For the following expressions we used a low estimate of 90% of X and a high estimate of X: "as many as 1,000" = (900; 1,000) For the following expression we used a low estimate of X and a high estimate of 110% of X: "little more than 1,000" = (1,000; 1,100) For the following expressions we used a low estimate of X and a high estimate of 120% of X: "1,000-plus" = (1,000; 1,200) (10) Obviously our total high and low estimates for the nation as a whole depend heavily on our interpretation of sources for the two largest demonstrations in the country, those which took place in New York and San Francisco. In New York, the size of the entire crowd was first estimated by "authorities" at 250,000, according to Reuters stories filed on February 15. Within hours, though, police retreated from that number, refusing to provide a figure for any part of the demonstration except the permitted blocks on First Avenue, which they estimated to be filled to capacity at 100,000. This was a convenient way to make the protest appear considerably smaller, since police used barricades and mounted officers to block the majority of protestors from reaching the permitted area for two hours or more. Therefore, we rejected these police estimates as clearly inaccurate. Our New York low estimate of 440,000 derives from Robert D. McFadden's first-hand account from his front page article in the February 16, early edition, of the New York Times ("·given the sea of faces extending for more than a mile up First Avenue and the ancillary crowds that were prevented from joining them, the [organizers'] claim [of more than 400,000] did not appear to be wildly improbable.") Why the endorsement of "more than 400,000" translates to 440,000 is explained in (9) above. In the later edition of the paper, the entire paragraph was rewritten in a manner that significantly reduced McFadden's first-hand estimate. For further discussion, see "The Numbers Game" in Mother Jones, posted Feb. 17. Our New York high estimate of 500,000, was provided to us by United for Peace and Justice in New York, the main organizers of the rally. While some news sources reported figures atrributed to "organizers" of between 750,000 and one million, we believe these numbers to be inflated. A more accurate estimate would be possible if law enforcement were to release aerial photos and/or video coverage of the event undoubtedly taken by the numerous surveillance helicopters hovering over the demonstration throughout the day. Due to the same "security concerns" that the city used to justify its refusal to grant a march permit, media helicopters were not permitted to fly over the city on February 15. Therefore, our government is in sole possession of this critical evidence. Our low and high figures for San Francisco are both 200,000, since this is the current estimate of both police and event organizers. The San Francisco Chronicle has since published an estimate of 65,000 ("Photos show 65,000 at peak of S.F. rally") based on aerial photos of the protest taken at about 1:45 PM. This drastically lower figure has been rejected by both police and organizers, who stand by their estimates. The scope of this story has eluded most of the U.S. news media, who generally focused on the large events in New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. When they went anywhere for the big picture, journalists seem to have traveled no further than the United for Peace and Justice website, where less than two thirds of U.S. communities planning events (185) had registered them in advance. This was downsized to an estimate of "about 150" American towns and cities, a figure representing only fifty-three percent of the minimum actual number, yet this number was reported as fact on many television stations and in many newspapers. Even the Associated Press, which employs journalists in every state, failed to assemble accurate numbers of events and participants in the days immediately following the demonstrations and in the three weeks since. Most stories mentioned the same handful of American cities in passing, often giving no estimates at all. For example, the protest in Sitka, Alaska, was mentioned in news sources around the world, but we found no news story describing the actual event. The definitive Associated Press story on the U.S. protests, filed on February 16 by Verena Dobnik and reprinted in countless American and international papers, noted the presence of "some 200 war supporters" disrupting the peace event in Wausau, Wisconsin, but gave no estimate of the overall size of the crowd. Only the local paper, the Wausau Daily Herald, ran a story, reporting an event attended by "as many as 1500" anti-war demonstrators. Residents of Wausau were lucky to read local coverage of their event at all. We found numerous instances in which a city or regional paper printed a wire story describing protests in New York, London, Madrid, Paris, Rome, and Dublin and nowhere informed readers about the protest which had occurred in their own backyard. We also found that many college newspapers are keeping their readers better informed about local anti-war events than other area newspapers, a fact reflected in the sources listed for our data. We have discovered that television reporters, upon whom many Americans depend as their sole news source, are considerably more prone to underreport the size of the crowds than their counterparts in the print media. Time and again we threw out online local TV news reports for their drastic undercounts, once we had compared them with numbers provided by print media. For example, we saw a beaming CNN reporter in Los Angeles on February 15 tell the anchor that she was standing in a crowd of "fifteen thousand," a figure representing half the police estimate and fifteen percent of the organizers' estimate. Sadly, print journalists are only marginally better. Most seem to think that once they have asked the police and an organizer how many people are present their job is done. We depend on the media to give us facts, yet when faced with an opportunity to give us a number, they act as if the size of a crowd is a matter of political opinion, as if there are "two sides" to the number of people standing in a street. Can journalists count? Why don't they? Why do they so often use vague terms such as "hundreds" or "several thousand"? When there is a large discrepancy in estimates, why is the police figure virtually always the lower one? Can that be coincidence? Not a single article we came across described the police method of counting crowds, while journalists often described the organizers' counting methods. Do the police have methods? Two papers deserve mention for telling the anti-war story better than the rest: The Raleigh News & Observer, the paper of North Carolina's capital, for its willingness to estimate a large crowd, and the Olympian, the local paper of Washington's capital, for its presentation of the big picture in the Pacific Northwest. The police refusal to provide a crowd estimate for the Raleigh march did not deter reporters Anne Saker and Molly Hennesy-Fiske ("Thousands say don't fight Iraq") from describing the counting and averaging method used by organizers, which led to their estimate of 7,000. The reporters then added their own ballpark estimate to demonstrate the organizers' accuracy: "The march took about 10 minutes to pass a point behind The News & Observer's building on South Salisbury Street, and about 20 people passed that point every two seconds; that would add up to an estimate of 6,000 people." The Olympian ran a piece titled "Across the Northwest" on the front page of its February 16 edition, which provided crowd estimates and descriptions of peace events in eleven cities of Washington, Oregon and British Columbia. Obviously the story was the product of staff research, since AP filed no such detailed story of the big picture in any region or the country as a whole. ************** Who we are: Less Oil for Life fully supports all non-violent actions undertaken in the name of peace, but believes that the end of global conflict and the preservation of the Earth's ecosystem for future generations can only be achieved when the inhabitants of the so-called "developed" nations make a personal commitment to a lifestyle of low energy consumption. We call on our fellow Americans, especially, to join us in following these personal steps to promote permanent peace, safety, health and community: (1) buy no new gasoline-powered car ever again; (2) emit less carbon by bicycling, walking, using public transportation or carpooling; (3) buy less in general and locally-made products whenever possible, since less oil has been burned to bring them to you (4) spread the word, by telling family, friends, coworkers, the media, politicians and CEOs that over-consumption is a weapon of mass destruction and you have chosen to unilaterally disarm. Interested parties are invited to join our discussion group at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/lessoilforlife/ or to contact us at lessoilforlife @ yahoo.com. |
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